The 2026 Hajj operation is facing what could become one of the most severe logistical and financial crises in recent history as the skyrocketing cost of Jet A1 aviation fuel continues to threaten the airlift of thousands of Nigerian pilgrims to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
When Hajj contracts were negotiated and signed, Jet A1 was selling at approximately ₦1,000 per litre in Nigeria, while the average price on the Saudi side was around $0.68 per litre. Airlines structured their fares, logistics, and operational plans around these benchmarks.
Today, however, the situation has changed dramatically.
Across major departure points such as Abuja, Kano, Lagos, Maiduguri, Yola, Sokoto and Birnin Kebbi, Jet A1 is now being sold for as much as ₦3,000 per litre, representing a 200% increase from the original price used in contract projections.
This sharp rise has placed airlines in a difficult financial position. If they are forced to absorb the increased fuel cost, many may be operating at a loss. If pilgrims are made to absorb it, Hajj fares will rise sharply. If government intervenes, it may require emergency support mechanisms despite the removal of Hajj subsidies in Nigeria.
For a single aircraft consuming 70,000 litres of Jet A1 per flight on the Nigerian leg:
At the contract benchmark of ₦1,000/litre = ₦70 million
At ₦2,500/litre = ₦175 million
Additional burden: ₦105 million per flight
At ₦2,800/litre:as in Maiduguri sokoto yola and kebbi
Fuel cost = ₦196 million
Additional burden: ₦126 million per flight
This means the financial strain on airlines remains enormous, with serious implications for the overall cost of the 2026 Hajj operation.
THE SECOND LEG CRISIS: RETURN FLIGHTS FROM SAUDI ARABIA
That is another critical dimension of the crisis.
Even if the Nigerian government or local suppliers stabilize Jet A1 prices for the first leg of the Hajj operation from Nigeria to Jeddah or Medina the second phase, which is the return flight from Jeddah back to Nigeria, remains a major unresolved challenge.
The price of Jet A1 on the Saudi side has reportedly risen from around $0.68 per litre at the time the Hajj contract was signed to approximately $1.40 per litre now.
That is more than a 105% increase in dollar terms.
For airlines, this creates a double burden:
Outbound leg: High fuel cost in Nigeria (if not subsidized or discounted)
Inbound leg: High fuel cost in Saudi Arabia in U.S. dollars
Unlike Nigeria, where intervention may come through policy or local refinery arrangements, airlines lifting pilgrims back home from Jeddah must buy fuel at prevailing international market rates in foreign currency.
This means airlines now face:
1. Foreign exchange pressure in sourcing dollars;
2. Higher operational costs on the return leg;
3. Possible fare adjustments to cover both sectors;
4. Reduced profit margins or outright losses.
For example, if an aircraft takes 70,000 litres on the Saudi leg:
At $0.68/litre = $47,600
At $1.40/litre = $98,000
That is an additional $50,400 per flight on the Saudi side alone.
At an exchange rate of approximately ₦1,400/$, this translates to roughly ₦70.5 million extra per flight.
So even if Nigeria “sorts” the first leg, the second leg may still force airlines to seek additional funding or fare increments.
This is why the current Hajj fare crisis is not just a Nigerian domestic fuel issue it is now a global aviation fuel and forex problem worsened by the ongoing Iran–Israel conflict, supply disruptions, and rising crude oil prices.
Industry insiders warn that if the global oil crisis worsens further, the price of Jet A1 could trigger an additional operational burden equivalent to about $400 extra per passenger or more in fare increments if the current trend persists.
This means intending pilgrims may soon face a significant hike in Hajj fares.
For airlines, the implications are even more devastating.
A typical long-haul aircraft transporting pilgrims from Nigeria to Jeddah or Medina consumes tens of thousands of litres of Jet A1 per trip.
This excludes other major costs such as:
aircraft leasing costs,
insurance,
crew expenses,
airport and navigational charges,
ground handling, and
maintenance.
Many of the airlines contracted for the 2026 Hajj operations are expected to lease aircraft to meet capacity demands. With the current fuel price crisis on both legs, much of their projected profit margin has already been wiped out. In some cases, airlines may end up operating at break-even or even at a loss, effectively flying “for free” after covering lease and operational expenses.
If urgent action is not taken, some airlines may find it financially impossible to even commence operations from Nigeria or sustain return operations from Saudi Arabia.
Sources say repeated efforts were made to reach relevant government authorities for intervention, but such efforts have so far been abortive, with no official response received as of the time of filing this report.
Meanwhile, the crisis is no longer being ignored by industry stakeholders.
Last week, the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) met with the Minister of Aviation after signaling that domestic and international airline operations could face shutdown within seven days if the Jet A1 crisis remains unresolved.
Following the meeting, the association and the Federal Ministry of Aviation reportedly agreed to establish a working group tasked with reviewing the price of Jet A1 in the Nigerian market and recommending immediate solutions.
Failure to urgently address the issue could lead to:
1. Sharp increase in Hajj fares for intending pilgrims;
2. Massive losses for airlines;
3. Delays or disruption in Hajj preparations;
4. Reduction in available aircraft and operational capacity; and
5. A complete breakdown of the 2026 Hajj airlift operation.
Government intervention may now be inevitable.
Although the Federal Government no longer provides direct subsidies for Hajj operations in Nigeria, stakeholders believe that urgent policy measures, pricing regulation, forex support, or strategic fuel supply arrangements may be necessary to prevent the operation from collapsing.
Without swift intervention, coordination, and emergency action from the government, regulators, airlines, and marketers, the 2026 Hajj operation may witness one of the highest fare increases in history or, in the worst-case scenario, operational failure.
In simple terms: the soaring cost of Jet A1 on both the Nigerian and Saudi sides is the clearest reason why Hajj fares are expected to rise sharply in 2026.
The President of Concerned Aviation Stakeholders,
Signed
Alhaji Bukalti Usaman Gamawa.
